Pilot Demand and the Ongoing Pilot Shortage in the United States
The United States is experiencing a persistent pilot shortage across commercial airlines, the military, and private aviation sectors. Multiple factors have contributed to this shortfall, and industry forecasts predict high demand for pilots in the coming decades. Below is a detailed analysis covering the current shortage, future demand (10-year and 20-year outlooks), airline hiring trends and strategies, pilot salaries by category, the role of flight training institutions (like FLT Academy), regional demand variations, and the impact of new technologies on pilot jobs.
Overview of the Current Pilot Shortage and Contributing Factors
The pilot shortage is very real and not improving any time soon . U.S. airlines, the military, and even private flight operators have been struggling to recruit and retain enough pilots to meet demand. Several key factors are driving this shortage:
Wave of Retirements: A large cohort of baby-boomer pilots is reaching the mandatory retirement age of 65, creating a significant gap in the workforce . Over 16,000 airline pilots will retire in the next five years alone, and 80,000 U.S. airline pilots will retire over the next 20 years . (Congress considered raising the retirement age to 67, but the proposal was dropped in 2023 due to safety and union concerns .)
Training Pipeline & Costs: Becoming a pilot is expensive and time-consuming. Earning required licenses and 1,500 flight hours (the U.S. rule for airline first officers) can cost well over $100,000 in training . This high cost deters many aspiring aviators. Flight schools report that financing is a major barrier – “talented, aspiring pilots without $200,000 to finance flight training cannot enter the career”, according to the Regional Airline Association .
COVID-19 Impacts: During the pandemic, airlines offered early-retirement packages and furloughed pilots, and many senior pilots left permanently . At the same time, fewer new pilots were trained (flight schools slowed or closed), creating a backlog. When travel demand rebounded quickly in 2021-2022, airlines faced a staffing crunch .
Shrinking Military Pipeline: Historically, U.S. airlines hired many ex-military pilots. Today, the military itself is short on aviators and retaining the pilots it trains. The Air Force, for example, was short about 1,850 pilots in 2024 (including 1,142 fighter pilots) . Fewer military pilots are available to transition into civilian cockpits . In fact, some would-be airline pilots choose to enlist in the military for free training – which temporarily reduces the civilian pool – while many active military pilots are being lured to the airlines by much higher pay.
Regulations and Safety Rules: The U.S. has one of the strictest flight-hour requirements for new airline pilots (the “1,500-hour rule”). By contrast, other countries allow commercial co-pilots with as few as 200 hours of flight time . While this rule has improved safety, it lengthens the training time and cost for new pilots, contributing to the shortage of “young, up-and-coming pilots” in the U.S. .
Quality of Life Concerns: The lifestyle of pilots (irregular schedules, time away from home) can dissuade some newcomers . In regional airlines especially, very low starting pay (historically) and tough schedules made the career less attractive – though this is now changing with pay raises (discussed later).
In short, a “perfect storm” of high retirement rates, a training bottleneck, pandemic after-effects, and competition for talent has created a severe pilot shortage in the U.S. aviation industry . This shortage is evident not only in airlines cancelling flights or freezing growth due to lack of crews, but also in military units lacking pilots and flight schools scrambling for instructors.
Projected Pilot Demand Over the Next 10 and 20 Years
Long-term forecasts consistently show that pilot demand will remain strong and even grow in the coming decades. The shortage is not a short-term blip; it is expected to persist without significant intervention. Key projections include:
10-Year Outlook (through ~2033): Consulting firm Oliver Wyman projects that demand for pilots will outstrip supply through at least 2032, with North America facing an ongoing shortfall . In 2022, they estimated North America was already short about 8,000 pilots (an 11% gap) and warned the gap would “continue to worsen over the next decade” . Even with increased training output, a shortage of around 13,000 pilots is still projected by 2032 in North America under current conditions . (This is a slightly improved forecast compared to a year prior, which had predicted a 17,000 pilot gap by 2032 .) The shortage is expected to peak in the mid-2020s – one estimate put the worst gap in 2026 at about 24,000 too few pilots – then moderately improve as training catches up, but not fully resolve. Boeing’s 2023 industry outlook similarly projects North America will need about 123,000 new pilots over the next 20 years (2023–2043), with demand especially acute in the 2020s . The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also forecasts about 18,500 pilot job openings per year this decade (accounting for retirements and growth) – a high number of positions to fill annually.
20-Year Outlook (through ~2045): Over a 20-year horizon, the numbers become even larger due to fleet growth and retirements. Industry projections indicate North American airlines will need roughly 120,000 new pilots in the next 20 years . Global forecasts by Boeing and CAE show worldwide demand for 600,000+ new commercial pilots over 20 years, with North America accounting for about 20% of that total . CAE’s 2023 talent forecast reported that by 2032 (roughly 9 years from the report) global aviation will need to recruit 1.3 million new personnel, including 252,000 new pilots in commercial aviation and 32,000 new business aviation pilots . The aging workforce is a major factor – over 38% of U.S. airline pilots are over 50 years old , meaning a large wave of retirements is looming. In fact, one industry association compiled that 80,000 airline pilots will reach retirement age in the U.S. over the next 20 years .
In summary, pilot demand will remain strong for at least the next two decades. Even if the shortage gap narrows slightly in the 2030s thanks to training efforts, the sheer growth in air travel (and attrition of current pilots) means tens of thousands of new pilots must be trained. For example, air passenger traffic is expected to soar – the industry is bracing for record passenger numbers and expanding fleets (North America’s commercial fleet may grow ~40% by 2032) – which directly drives the need for more pilots. FAA forecasts and airline plans all point to continued hiring needs well into 2040. Essentially, the pilot career outlook is very strong for those entering training now, as they will be in high demand throughout the next 10–20 years.
Hiring Trends at Major Airlines and Strategies to Address the Shortage
Male pilot in command controlling airplane while adjusting headset microphone closer to his mouth
U.S. major airlines have been on a hiring spree as they grapple with the pilot shortage. After travel demand returned post-2020, airlines hired record numbers of pilots in 2022 and 2023. For instance, the largest U.S. carriers brought on about 13,000 new pilots in 2022, an all-time high (nearly three times the hires in 2019) . In 2023, the top 13 airlines hired over 12,300 pilots (only slightly below the 2022 record) . This massive hiring wave has been necessary to replace retirees and staff new flights. (By comparison, in the mid-2010s, annual pilot hiring was only on the order of a few thousand per year.)
Airlines’ strategies to tackle the shortage and attract pilots include:
Pay Increases and Bonuses: Carriers have dramatically raised wages. New pilot labor contracts at both major and regional airlines pushed compensation to record levels, with some pilot salaries increasing 50–80% since 2020 . For example, mainline (major airline) captain pay is up ~46% vs. 2020, and regional airline pilot pay climbed ~86% in that period . Airlines are also offering generous signing bonuses, retention bonuses, and other incentives. These pay hikes make the career more attractive and have slowed the exodus of pilots to other industries. Major airlines like American, Delta, United, and Southwest all signed new contracts in 2022–2023 that raise pilot pay roughly 30% over four years, bringing senior captain salaries to $350,000+ at those airlines (with overtime, many can earn well above $400k). Regionals, which historically paid low wages, have sharply increased starting pay to compete – first officers at many regionals can now earn around $90,000–$100,000 in their first year including bonuses, whereas it used to be barely $30,000 a decade ago. These market adjustments were needed to resolve what one report called a “tough value proposition” for new pilots in the past .
Cadet Academies and Training Pipelines: Major airlines have established direct pilot training pathways to cultivate their own future pilots. United Airlines, for instance, launched the Aviate program (including its own United Aviate Academy in Phoenix) to identify and train aspiring pilots early, offering conditional job offers and mentorship through the training process . American Airlines runs the Cadet Academy in partnership with flight schools to train ab initio pilots for its regional carriers, with financial aid and flow-through to American’s mainline. Delta’s Propel program provides a route for college aviation students and even internal Delta employees to become Delta pilots. Southwest has its Destination 225° program for pilot development. These programs often come with tuition assistance or loans, mentors, and a guaranteed interview or flow-through job at the airline once certain criteria are met. The goal is to build a steady talent pipeline instead of relying solely on the open market. (United’s CEO noted they aim to train 5,000 new pilots by 2030 through their academy, half of whom are women or people of color, to also improve diversity.)
Partnerships with Flight Schools and Universities: Airlines are partnering with independent flight academies and university aviation programs. For example, SkyWest Airlines (a large regional carrier) has a partnership with FLT Academy to feed students into SkyWest’s ranks. Through this program, FLT Academy students can enroll as SkyWest cadets from day one of training, receive mentorship from airline pilots, and even start accruing company seniority while still in flight school . The partnership provides up to $17,500 in tuition reimbursement and a guaranteed interview at SkyWest upon reaching the required hours . Other regionals (Envoy Air, Mesa, Republic, etc.) have similar “pipeline” agreements with schools and offer financial incentives (tuition aid, stipends while instructing, etc.). These collaborations accelerate the transition from student pilot to airline pilot and help remove financial barriers for trainees.
Recruiting Broader Talent Pools: Airlines have widened recruitment efforts to non-traditional sources. They are courting military pilots more aggressively (offering high ranks or longevity credit for military flight time), and some are recruiting international pilots where visa rules allow. There is also a push to attract more women and minority pilots – organizations like Women in Aviation International, the Latino Pilots Association, and OBAP (Organization of Black Aerospace Professionals) are working with airlines to provide scholarships and mentorship, expanding the pilot talent pool . In addition, airlines are trying to entice retired pilots back in training or administrative roles, and even exploring legislative changes (like raising the retirement age or adjusting the 1,500-hour rule) to ease supply constraints .
Fleet and Network Adjustments: In the short term, airlines have responded to the shortage by adjusting their operations. Major carriers have up-gauged to larger aircraft (which require fewer pilots per passenger carried) and trimmed frequencies on routes to cope with limited pilot staffing . Many regional routes were cut – American Airlines, United, and others dropped service to dozens of small cities in 2021–2022 because they didn’t have enough pilots to fly the regional jets . By reducing the least profitable flights (often to smaller communities), airlines could reassign pilots to higher-demand routes and mainline flights. This is a stopgap measure that airlines hope to reverse once pilot staffing improves.
Overall, major U.S. airlines are pulling out all the stops to hire and train pilots: dramatically increasing compensation, creating new training pipelines, and even lobbying for policy changes. These efforts are starting to have an effect – the number of new commercial pilot certificates issued in the U.S. has been rising (post-pandemic training rates are robust) . In fact, 2022 saw a surge of new ATP (Airline Transport Pilot) licenses issued in the U.S., which is a positive sign . Airlines know that maintaining this “steady pipeline of highly trained personnel” is critical to narrowing the gap . It’s worth noting that in late 2023 and 2024, some airlines slightly slowed their hiring pace (Delta and American, for example, temporarily paused classes) – but this was due to short-term factors like aircraft delivery delays and training backlogs, not a fundamental excess of pilots . The overall trend is that pilot hiring will remain a priority for years to come.
Data on Pilot Salaries Across Commercial, Military, and Private Aviation
Pilot salaries in the U.S. vary widely by sector – with major airline pilots often earning the highest pay, regional and private/corporate pilots somewhat less (though rising), and military pilot pay on a different scale set by rank. Here’s a breakdown:
Commercial Airline Pilots (Major Carriers): Airlines typically pay pilots based on aircraft type and seniority, so pay ranges from moderate (for new first officers) to very high (for senior captains on jumbo jets). According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median annual wage for airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers was $219,140 in 2023 . This median reflects a mix of captains and first officers. Top captains at large airlines can earn $300,000–$400,000+ per year with overtime. For example, after recent contract raises, a 12-year captain at a major airline like Delta or United on a narrowbody jet will be in the mid-$300k range, and widebody (international) captains can exceed $400k with longevity. First officer pay at majors ranges roughly from $100k (junior) up to $250k (senior long-haul FO). These figures have all increased substantially in the past two years due to new union contracts (as noted, +30-40% pay rate increases). Benefits like retirement contributions, health insurance, and per diem add further value.
Regional Airline Pilots: Historically, regional airlines (flying smaller jets on feeder routes) had much lower pay scales, with first-year first officers often making under $30k two decades ago. That has changed. Today, under pressure from the shortage, regionals have increased wages to attract and retain pilots. Many regionals now advertise first-year total compensation around $70k–$100k including bonuses, and captains in regionals can earn in the $100k–$150k range, depending on experience and the airline. Oliver Wyman noted some regional pilot wages rose 86% in just the 2020–2023 period . For example, one regional (Envoy Air) now lists ~$90k first-year FO pay (including bonuses), and a captain at a top-tier regional can make around $150k+. While still less than major airline pay, the gap has narrowed considerably. These raises at the regional level are crucial, as regionals were losing pilots to the majors at very high rates.
Private/Corporate Aviation Pilots: Pilots flying in business aviation (corporate jets, charter flights, private owners) are categorized as “commercial pilots” by the BLS (meaning they are professional pilots but not airline transport pilots for airlines). The median annual wage for commercial pilots (non-airline) was $113,080 in 2023 . This category includes corporate jet pilots, air ambulance and firefighting pilots, flight instructors, and charter pilots. Salaries in this arena vary based on the type of operation and aircraft. For instance, a pilot flying a small turboprop or helicopter for charter might make around $70k, whereas a captain flying a large business jet (e.g., a Gulfstream or Global Express for a Fortune 500 company) might earn $150k–$200k per year. A recent survey of business aviation showed many corporate jet pilots earn well into six figures, competitive with airline pay for those at the top of that segment. Notably, with the airlines hiring so aggressively, corporate flight departments and private jet operators have had to raise their pay too – in 2022, NetJets (a major private jet company) gave pilots significant raises after many were being poached by airlines. So, the pilot shortage has driven up compensation across all commercial sectors.
Military Pilots: Military pilot pay is determined by military pay scales (rank and years of service), which generally result in lower salaries than commercial aviation but come with benefits (housing allowance, healthcare, bonuses). As a rough benchmark, an Air Force major with ~10 years of service earns around $100,000 per year in base pay and allowances . An Air Force pilot’s base salary at the O-5 rank (Lieutenant Colonel) with 15 years might be on the order of $120k including basic allowances. According to Air Force figures, the average military pilot salary (across all ranks) tends to fall in the $80k–$120k range . To improve retention, the military also offers hefty bonuses for pilots who stay beyond their initial service commitment. The Air Force recently announced retention bonuses up to $600,000 over 12 years (i.e. $50k per year) for experienced pilots in critically manned positions . Even with these bonuses, many fighter pilots reaching the end of their commitment see commercial airline jobs paying two to three times their military pay, which is why retention is difficult. In short, military pilots are paid decently but below market compared to civilian pilot jobs, which is why so many transition to airlines at the first opportunity. The value of military pilot compensation also includes intangible benefits (leadership roles, serving one’s country) and post-service retirement pensions, but purely financially, the gap has widened due to soaring airline pay.
To summarize, pilot salaries have been escalating rapidly in the airline industry due to the shortage – benefiting those in the profession. An aspiring pilot can now anticipate a very good income once they reach a major airline. Even regional and corporate pilot pay is improving. The disparity between sectors still exists (a regional or corporate pilot early in their career makes much less than a senior airline captain), but all pilots are seeing upwards pressure on wages. The median U.S. pilot salary (all types) climbing from ~$128k in 2016 to ~$219k in 2023 illustrates this dramatic jump . For those in flight training now, the financial prospects are quite strong if they stick with it to an airline career.
The Role of Flight Training Institutions (e.g. FLT Academy) in Addressing the Shortage
Flight training institutions are on the front lines of solving the pilot shortage. Every new pilot must come through a flight school or military training program, so expanding and improving pilot training capacity is critical. Schools like FLT Academy, and others (ATP Flight School, university aviation programs, Epic Flight Academy, etc.), are ramping up efforts to train more pilots, faster – without compromising safety. Here are some ways these institutions are contributing:
Scaling Up Training Capacity: FLT Academy, for example, has grown into “one of the largest flight schools in North America”, according to its founders . This growth means investing in more training aircraft, simulators, and instructors to accommodate more students. Many academies are adding brand-new training aircraft (which are more reliable and can fly more hours per day) and advanced simulators. Epic Flight Academy notes it purchases new training airplanes and uses simulators extensively to keep training efficient and costs down for students. By increasing throughput, flight schools can graduate more pilots each year to meet industry needs. The FAA has also given some schools authority to self-examine (checkrides in-house) under Part 141, which helps avoid bottlenecks in practical testing.
Airline and Military Partnerships: As discussed earlier, flight schools are partnering with airlines to create pipeline programs. FLT Academy’s partnership with SkyWest Airlines is a prime example – students who enroll in FLT’s Career-Track program can join the SkyWest Pilot Pathway Program from day one, attending joint orientation and receiving mentorship from SkyWest pilots during training . They earn a guaranteed job interview at 1,500 hours and even get SkyWest seniority credit during training . This kind of integration incentivizes students to pursue training (knowing there’s a job waiting) and helps airlines secure a flow of pilots. FLT Academy also runs a Rotor Transition Program with SkyWest , helping military helicopter pilots transition to airline cockpits with financial assistance. Many other academies have similar deals (ATP Flight School has partnerships with virtually every regional airline; university programs like UND and Embry-Riddle have pipeline agreements too). These partnerships often include tuition reimbursement (e.g. FLT/SkyWest offers up to $17,500 back to the student) , which eases the financial burden and draws in candidates who might otherwise not afford training.
Financial Assistance and Scholarships: Recognizing the cost barrier, flight schools and related organizations are offering more financial aid. FLT Academy, for instance, has financing options (Skybound, Stratus Financial, etc. listed on their site) to help students secure loans for training. Many schools facilitate loan programs that treat pilot training more like a trade school loan. Additionally, industry groups and airlines have begun scholarship programs. The Epic article mentions that initiatives to subsidize or fully fund pilot training are gaining momentum, with some airlines directly sponsoring cadets (for example, a foreign carrier, US-Bangla Airlines, sends cadets to Epic Flight Academy for training under sponsorship) . Such efforts reduce the up-front cost for students, allowing a broader range of people to pursue flying.
Accelerated and Ab Initio Programs: To produce pilots more quickly, some academies offer accelerated training tracks. FLT Academy notes it has both accelerated and less-accelerated options to suit student needs . An accelerated program might take a student from zero experience to commercial pilot in as little as 12-18 months, followed by becoming a flight instructor to build hours. These intense programs help move people through the pipeline faster than the traditional pace. Airlines are increasingly accepting pilots from ab initio civilian training (whereas decades ago, many airline pilots came from military or years in general aviation). So flight schools are effectively taking on the role of producing airline-ready pilots in a short time span.
Focus on Quality and Safety: Importantly, reputable training institutions are emphasizing that quantity should not trump quality. They are ensuring training standards remain high, because the last thing the industry needs is safety issues from rushed training. Schools with self-examining authority must maintain high pass standards or risk FAA scrutiny. In many cases, academies are using advanced simulation (including FAA-approved Level D simulators for certain parts of training) and scenario-based training to produce competent pilots efficiently. Some are embracing new training curricula like Airline-Style multi-crew training earlier in the process, so students are better prepared for airline operations.
Instructor Development: A bottleneck in flight training is the shortage of flight instructors, since many instructors quickly move on to airline jobs (given the demand). Schools like Epic have noted increased enrollment puts strain on finding enough qualified instructors . To combat this, flight academies are offering incentives to attract instructors – for example, bonuses for instructor retention, or hiring retired airline pilots as instructors for advanced students. Some airlines are even sending some of their pilots on leave to instruct at partner schools as part of their pipeline agreements.
In essence, flight academies such as FLT Academy are crucial to closing the pilot gap. They are expanding capacity, reducing barriers, and directly feeding airlines with new pilots. The partnership model (academies + airlines) is proving effective in creating a seamless path from day one of training to an airline cockpit . As these programs scale up, the industry hopes the influx of new pilots will gradually mitigate the shortage. Flight schools are where the “supply” side of the equation can be improved, and right now they are in high gear – with strong enrollment numbers and many prospective students drawn by the promise of a lucrative pilot career.
Regional Variations in Pilot Demand within the U.S.
The pilot shortage has not affected all segments of U.S. aviation equally. There are significant regional and sector-based variations in how the demand versus supply imbalance plays out across the country. Key variations include:
Major Hubs vs. Small Communities: Large hub airports and major city markets (e.g. New York, Atlanta, LAX) have generally been able to maintain flight schedules by concentrating airline pilot resources there, whereas small regional airports have borne the brunt of the pilot shortage. Because pilots have been siphoned away to major airlines, many regional routes were cut or reduced, leaving smaller cities with diminished air service . The Regional Airline Association reported that by the end of 2022, a stunning 76% of U.S. cities saw a decline in air service compared to 2019 due to the pilot shortage and related cutbacks . Many smaller communities lost about 1 in every 3 flights they used to have , and some lost all scheduled airline service. For example, airports like Williamsport, PA and Dubuque, IA (among others) were left with no airline service when their one regional carrier pulled out, citing lack of pilots. “People from all walks of life are forced to drive hours to a city with air service because there are too few pilots to take them by air,” said the RAA CEO in late 2022 . In contrast, the busiest hubs (which are served by mainline aircraft and are priorities for airlines) have largely kept their schedules intact – airlines will ensure those flights are crewed, even if it means trimming the smaller spokes.
Regional Airlines vs. Major Airlines: There is a sectoral “regional variation” – essentially a pilot deficit in the regional airline sector and a relative surplus at the majors (because the majors have hiring draw). Over the last couple of years, as soon as regional airlines train a new first officer, that pilot becomes attractive to a major carrier after achieving minimum hours. This flow of pilots upstream created an acute shortage of captains at regionals (not just first officers). The RAA noted what started as a “first officer shortage” has become a “captain shortage” as well, since many captains at regionals left for better-paying major airline jobs . The result is that regionals had to park many of their smaller planes. In the wake of COVID, U.S. airlines eliminated a lot of 50-seat jet flying – by 2023, flights on 50-seat or smaller aircraft were only ~1/3 of pre-pandemic levels – partly because there were not enough pilots willing to work at the regionals for previous wages. Routes operated by those smaller regional jets were either upgauged to larger jets (where possible) or dropped. If regional flying were to return to pre-2020 levels, it’s estimated an additional 6,000 pilots would be required beyond current supply – which indicates how much suppressed regional demand there is. In essence, the pilot shortage hit the regional airlines hardest, which in turn affected certain geographies (rural areas, mid-sized cities reliant on regionals).
Geographic Differences in Training/Recruitment: Certain regions of the U.S. are pilot training hotspots (e.g. Florida, Arizona, Texas have many flight schools and good flying weather). These areas are producing a lot of new pilots who often relocate for training. However, demand for pilots is nationwide – airlines based on the coasts or in the center all draw from the same national pool of pilots. Some regional variation can be seen in where pilots are based: for instance, carriers with bases in the Northeast U.S. have had to work to attract pilots willing to live in higher-cost areas like NYC or DC, whereas bases in places like Dallas or Phoenix might be easier sells. But overall, the shortage is not a localized issue – it’s system-wide. Even traditionally popular pilot jobs like flying in Alaska (which has a high per-capita need for pilots for transport and bush flying) have felt the pinch; Alaska Airlines had a well-publicized pilot shortage issue in 2022 that led to flight cancellations, though by 2023 they stated no small cities in Alaska would lose service because they reallocated resources .
Regional Economic Impact: Regions that are tourist-heavy or industry-heavy have different pilot needs. For example, areas with booming private charter demand (Florida, for instance, with many private jets) have a strong need for charter/corporate pilots, whereas agricultural states might need more crop-dusting pilots (who are also in short supply in some cases). But these variations are minor compared to the big picture of airline pilot shortage. One notable trend: Sun Belt states and fast-growing metro areas (Texas, Florida, Arizona, etc.) are seeing especially high air travel growth, so airlines plan to expand there – which will further increase pilot demand in those regions in coming years.
In conclusion, within the U.S., the shortage is most acute in the regional airline segment and in smaller community air service, whereas major airlines have mitigated impact by recruiting heavily (often at the expense of the regionals). Regions of the country dependent on regional airlines have felt disproportionate effects (fewer flights, reduced connectivity) . As the supply of new pilots slowly improves, one challenge will be refilling the regional airlines so that service to smaller cities can be restored. The dynamics of pilot demand will continue to have a geographic component – balancing the needs of major hubs versus regional access. But no area is truly immune: even large coastal airports suffer delays and canceled flights when pilot staffing is tight. The hope is that with more pilots entering the pipeline, airlines can rebuild schedules across all regions of the country.
Impact of New Technologies (Automation and AI) on Future Pilot Job Opportunities
With the pilot shortage as a backdrop, some have speculated that automation or AI might offer a solution – for instance, using autonomous aircraft or reducing cockpit crew from two pilots to one. In the next 10 to 20 years, technology will certainly advance, but it is unlikely to eliminate the need for human pilots in commercial aviation. Here’s why and how tech might play a role:
Autonomy is Coming Slowly: Fully pilotless airliners are a theoretical possibility, but not a near-term reality. Aviation experts predict that while autonomous or remotely piloted aircraft might be tested or even used in cargo operations by the 2030s, we are far from seeing passenger airlines go pilot-free. Boeing and Airbus have both demonstrated automated flight capabilities, and startups are working on cargo drones and small autonomous planes. In fact, prototype pilotless aircraft may be in production by 2040 for those willing to try them . However, regulatory hurdles and public acceptance are significant barriers. An ICAO publication mused that adventurous passengers might fly pilotless planes by 2040, but this is speculative . Most industry insiders believe the 2040s is the earliest we’d see any pilotless commercial service, and even that might be optimistic . Airline CEOs and pilot unions alike point out that the flying public is not ready to board an airliner with no pilot on board – there is a huge psychological and safety trust factor. A telling analogy: when elevator operators were phased out in the mid-20th century, it took a strike and public acclimation for people to trust automated elevators . Replacing pilots will be even tougher; as one commentary noted, “How soon do you think passengers will be ready to book a flight on an unmanned aircraft?” The answer: not soon.
Single-Pilot Operations: A more likely intermediate step is moving from two pilots to one pilot (with remote or AI support) on certain flights. There has been discussion in cargo airlines and even at Airbus about certifying single-pilot airliner operations in cruise flight (with the second pilot resting, or a remote pilot on ground as backup). This could theoretically alleviate pilot staffing needs if one pilot could handle a flight with oversight. However, currently international aviation regulations require two pilots on virtually all commercial passenger flights, and changing this would require global consensus and proven safety. Pilot unions strongly oppose single-pilot scenarios, citing safety risks if that one pilot falls incapacitated and the complexities of emergency decision-making. Given these challenges, no major passenger airline is planning for single-pilot cockpits in the next couple of decades. Cargo operations might experiment sooner (since no passengers are at risk), but even cargo companies are cautious – the technology has to be nearly infallible. In short, automation will assist pilots (with more advanced autopilots, AI decision aids, and possibly remote monitoring), but an onboard human pilot will remain indispensable for the foreseeable future.
AI in Training and Operations: Where technology is making inroads is in pilot training and support. AI-powered simulators and virtual reality training tools are being used to help train pilots more efficiently, potentially easing the training bottleneck. For example, AI can adapt training scenarios to a pilot’s weaknesses or even serve as a virtual co-pilot in simulation. This could produce qualified pilots faster and at lower cost, helping address the shortage from the training side. In daily operations, increasingly sophisticated flight management systems handle routine tasks, and some airlines use AI for pilot scheduling to maximize utilization. These tech improvements augment pilot productivity but don’t replace the pilot. Essentially, automation is taking over more of the repetitive or easily computerizable aspects of flying, freeing pilots to focus on critical decision-making. This makes the job more manageable as traffic grows, but does not reduce the count of pilots needed in the near term – if anything, it requires pilots to be even more tech-savvy.
Long-Term Outlook – More Planes = More Pilots: It’s important to note that even if each plane might one day need fewer pilots, the expected growth in the number of aircraft worldwide could offset that. Boeing forecasts nearly 44,000 new airplanes will be delivered globally over the next 20 years to meet travel demand. Each of those aircraft, under current norms, needs several crews of pilots. Unless autonomous tech leaps forward, those planes will all need human pilots. If single-pilot operations became legal, airlines might initially use it to relieve staffing strains on long-haul flights (where today they carry 3–4 pilots for crew rest), but it wouldn’t halve the pilot workforce overnight. More likely, technology will complement pilots, not replace them, in the 20-year window. By 2045, we may see the very beginnings of autonomous commercial flights or more drones handling cargo, but mainstream passenger operations will still rely on pilots. Indeed, Boeing’s and Airbus’s own demand outlooks assume a need for hundreds of thousands of new pilots despite anticipated tech advancements . The global pilot shortage is set to remain a challenge even as tech progresses .
In summary, automation and AI will impact aviation, but they are not a near-term fix for the pilot shortage. The industry will continue to need large numbers of skilled human pilots over the next 10 and 20 years. Technological change tends to be gradual in this sector due to the high safety bar. As one analysis noted, we can ease the pilot shortage by “increasing the diversity of the recruitment pool, lowering financial barriers to training, and the use of new technology”, but ultimately a global pilot shortage is expected to persist . The upside is that new technology can make the job easier and training more efficient, and perhaps over an even longer horizon (beyond 2040), we might start to see a tapering of pilot demand if true autonomy takes hold. For anyone considering a pilot career now, however, the impact of AI and automation will likely be to enhance your job, not eliminate it. Airlines will still be actively recruiting pilots for decades to come, and the shortage is a problem to be solved by human investment (training, recruitment, policy changes) more than by waiting for robots to fill the cockpit.
Conclusion
In the United States, the pilot shortage is a multifaceted issue driven by a retiring workforce, high training barriers, and surging travel demand. Over the next 10 years, tens of thousands of pilot positions will open up, and over 20 years the need exceeds a hundred thousand new pilots. Commercial airlines (especially regional carriers) are feeling the strain most, but military aviation and private/business aviation are also challenged as they compete for talent. Major airlines have responded with unprecedented hiring and innovative training pipeline programs, alongside big pay raises to attract and retain pilots. Salaries for pilots have grown very competitive, making the profession more attractive than ever. Flight training institutions like FLT Academy play a critical role by expanding the funnel of new pilots and partnering with airlines to remove barriers for students. Regionally, small communities have suffered air service cutbacks due to the shortage, highlighting the need to distribute new pilots across all sectors of aviation. Finally, while new technologies (automation/AI) are on the horizon, they are not expected to subtract from pilot job opportunities in the near future – if anything, demand for pilots will continue to grow alongside technological advancements.
All credible industry analyses indicate that being a pilot will remain a highly in-demand career in the U.S. for the next two decades. The shortage is both a challenge and an opportunity: a challenge for industry stakeholders to ensure safety and service amid staffing pressures, but an enormous opportunity for aspiring pilots who can look forward to abundant job openings and rising salaries. The aviation sector is rallying with solutions – from training initiatives to policy debates – to narrow the gap. In the meantime, for those with the passion to fly, there has never been a better time to become a pilot . The shortage “problem” is very much an individual pilot’s advantage, as the next generation of aviators steps into one of the most rewarding and now well-compensated careers in the world.
Sources:
FAA Aerospace Forecast 2024–2044; Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook 2023; Oliver Wyman Pilot Supply/Demand Analysis
Epic Flight Academy – “Pilot Shortage: Ongoing in the U.S. and Around the World” (Tony Perna, 2025)
Regional Airline Association 2022 Report (RAA CEO remarks on service cuts)
ATP Flight School – Pilot Hiring Outlook (BLS and NACA data on retirements)
