Airline Hiring Surge Expected in 2028: Why Now Is the Time to Start Your Flight Training for the Airlines

The Cyclical Nature of Airline Hiring

Airline pilot hiring has always been cyclical, with periods of rapid hiring followed by slower spells.  After a post-pandemic hiring frenzy in 2021–2023 (when airlines were “hiring like gangbusters”), the industry saw a slowdown in 2024 – major U.S. carriers hired about 40% fewer pilots in 2024 than in 2023.  This drop left some aspiring pilots worried that the so-called “pilot shortage” was over.  However, experts note that this lull is not a cause for alarm but a normal correction.  “What we are seeing now is not abnormal.  With the airlines, everything seems to ebb and flow… It tends to be feast or famine,” one aviation job expert explained.  In other words, today’s slower hiring is more of a settling back to pre-pandemic levels than a permanent decline.

It’s important to remember that demand for pilots remains strong in the long run.  Even as 2024 hiring cooled off, it was still on par with 2019’s healthy levels.  Airlines simply overshot their hiring in 2022–2023 and paused to adjust.  History shows that after every downturn – whether after 9/11, the 2008 recession, or the 2020 pandemic – the industry rebounds.  Air travel demand continues to grow, and airlines eventually ramp up hiring again to meet it.  In fact, by early 2025 industry leaders were already predicting a “return to form” in pilot hiring, expecting around 5,000 new pilots to be hired in 2025 (about the same as the strong pre-COVID years).  The key takeaway: don’t be scared off by the current slowdown.  It’s a temporary dip in an otherwise growing industry – the calm before the next hiring storm.

The Elephant in the Room

Before we continue, let’s acknowledge the obvious: this report was written by a flight school. Of course FLT Academy is invested in training pilots; it’s what we do. But this isn’t just about promoting ourselves.

Whether you choose FLT Academy or any other reputable training provider, this is information you deserve to know.

Regardless of where you train, one thing remains consistent: if you’re pursuing a full-time, accelerated training path followed by instructing to build time, you’re looking at 3 to 4 years from your first day in ground school to being airline-eligible. It could be faster, and it could take longer, but that’s the industry reality, and it’s important to plan accordingly.

We also want to highlight something encouraging; airline hiring trends have historically followed predictable patterns, and current data still supports strong opportunities ahead. We’re here to educate and guide aspiring aviators, even if you ultimately train somewhere else.

Bottom line: this isn’t just a sales pitch. It’s a tool to help you make informed, confident decisions about your future.

What’s Driving the Next Airline Hiring Boom?

Industry forecasts and trends indicate that the next big pilot hiring wave will crest in 2028-2030.  Several converging factors are fueling this projection.  If you’re an aspiring airline pilot, it’s crucial to understand these trends – they explain why the coming years will be ripe with opportunities for new pilots.

Key factors fueling the 2028-2030 airline pilot hiring surge include:

• Mass Retirements of Senior Pilots: By U.S. law, airline pilots must retire at age 65.  The industry’s workforce is skewed toward older pilots – there are 70% more pilots age 43–64 than age 21–42 – so a huge cohort is reaching retirement age.  Roughly 16,000+ airline pilots will retire in the next five years, creating thousands of job openings.  In fact, about 2,200 pilots hit age 65 in 2023, and retirements will rise to nearly 4,000 per year by 2028–2029.  This wave of retirements alone guarantees a hiring boom as airlines scramble to backfill cockpits.  “17,000 mandatory retirements are projected by the end of the decade, with a good number in the next 3–5 years.  New pilots need to be in the training pipeline to fill these shoes,” one aviation report emphasized.
• Fleet Growth and Record Aircraft Orders: Airlines aren’t just replacing retirees – they’re expanding.  U.S. carriers have hundreds of new aircraft on order for delivery over the next few years, signaling future growth.  For example, United Airlines plans to add 800 new aircraft to its fleet by 2032 and hire 10,000 pilots in that timeframe.  Other airlines have similarly ambitious fleet plans.  Frontier Airlines, to cite one, anticipates dozens of new Airbus jets arriving each year through 2028.  Even regional airlines are ordering new planes (e.g.  SkyWest’s recent order of 60 new Embraer jets to expand its Delta Connection operations).  These incoming aircraft will need crews.  Industry-wide aircraft deliveries, which were delayed by supply chain issues in 2023–2024, are expected to ramp up as manufacturers get back on track.  As airlines take delivery of new jets and open new routes, they will be hiring pilots to fly them.
• Strong Travel Demand and Market Growth: Air travel demand has rebounded vigorously from the pandemic and is continuing to rise.  Global passenger traffic is expected to double over the next 20 years, outpacing economic growth.  In the near term, U.S.  passenger volumes in 2024 set records, and 2025 is on track to grow further.  The FAA and industry analysts project steady growth in pilot jobs as a result.  The U.S.  Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts about 5% annual growth in airline and commercial pilot employment through 2033, which equates to roughly **18,000 new pilot openings **each year.  In other words, beyond just replacing retirees, airlines will be hiring for new positions driven by rising travel demand.  Many carriers are also investing in new routes (including international expansions) and preparing for the future.  The consensus is that the pilot shortage isn’t going away – it will “continue well into the decade” due to these combined pressures.
• Other Industry Tailwinds: A number of smaller factors are also contributing to the favorable outlook.  Airlines have been bolstering their support staff and infrastructure in anticipation of growth – for instance, maintenance technician hiring remains robust.  Even while pilot hiring slowed in 2024, many airlines continued hiring mechanics and technicians at full steam.  This indicates carriers are gearing up for increased operations.  Meanwhile, operational bottlenecks like air traffic control staffing are gradually improving (the FAA met its air traffic controller hiring goals in 2024), which should allow airlines to fly more schedules in coming years.  All these trends point to an industry preparing for its next upcycle.

In short, multiple demand drivers will converge around 2028 – a wave of senior pilots retiring, new jets coming online, and passenger numbers climbing.  Airline executives and analysts widely anticipate a hiring surge to match.  As one major airline president predicted, pilot hiring will return to “a more normalized tempo” in 2025 and then accelerate with retirements peaking by 2026–2028.  We can already see it in the planning: airlines like American and Delta have announced plans to hire thousands of pilots each year for the rest of the decade.  The writing on the wall is clear: the late 2020s will be a fantastic time to be a qualified pilot entering the job market.

Why Now Is the Best Time to Begin Your Training for the Airlines

Given the outlook above, starting your flight training now is absolutely the smart move.  Becoming an airline-ready pilot isn’t instantaneous – it takes time to train, build experience, and meet hiring requirements.  From zero experience to meeting a regional airline’s first officer minimums (typically 1,500 flight hours and an Airline Transport Pilot certificate) often takes about 2–3 years.  That includes about a year or so to train through commercial pilot and instructor ratings, followed by a year or two of flying as an instructor or in entry-level jobs to build hours.  If you begin now (in 2024–2025), you’ll likely hit the job market right as the hiring boom reaches full swing in 2028.  Timing is everything, and you want to be hitting your milestones just as airlines are snapping up new pilots.

Importantly, airlines themselves anticipate hiring far beyond just replacing retirees – they need a pipeline of fresh pilots coming through training now.  As noted, new deliveries and expansion will create additional demand.  You want to position yourself to capitalize on that demand.  Students beginning flight training now are uniquely positioned to take advantage of the strong hiring demand a few years down the road.  By training now, you effectively “ride the wave” of the upcoming boom, rather than playing catch-up after it’s begun.

Another reason not to delay is the potential for rapid career advancement during a hiring wave.  When airlines are short on pilots, upgrades happen faster.  For example, American Airlines projects hiring 10,000 pilots in the next 5 years, and because so many senior captains are retiring, a new pilot hired at American today could upgrade to a widebody Captain seat in as little as 10 years (far quicker than historical norms).  We are already seeing young pilots flying big jets earlier in their careers due to the vacancies created by retirements.  Starting training now puts you on track to benefit from these fast promotions and possibly reach major airline captaincy at an accelerated pace.

Lastly, consider the competitive landscape: while there has been a surge of people entering flight training in response to the “pilot shortage” headlines, the recent hiring slowdown may have discouraged some.  Those who start training during the lull and get all their qualifications will be ready and highly competitive when hiring ramps up again.  A 2024 industry insider report noted that regional airlines are increasingly drawing from their cadet programs and flow arrangements for new hires.  By starting training now, you can take advantage of such pipeline programs (many flight schools have partnerships with airlines) and secure your spot in line for the upcoming jobs.  In short, now is the perfect sweet spot to begin – you’ll finish training just in time for the next projected hiring frenzy, and you’ll be ahead of the crowd that waits until the wave is already cresting.

Train with the Best – Why Choose FLT Academy

Once you’ve decided to embark on flight training, the next question is where to train.  Your choice of flight school can significantly impact how fast and smoothly you reach your goals.  This is where FLT Academy stands out as an exceptional choice for aspiring airline pilots, especially if you want to be ready in time for the next projected hiring boom.

FLT Academy is an FAA-approved Part 141 flight school with a strong track record – but what truly sets it apart is its FAA Examining Authority.  FLT Academy is one of the rare institutions that has earned the privilege to conduct pilot evaluations and certifications in-house (currently available for private pilot, instrument rating, and commercial pilot courses, with CFI approval on the horizon).  This is a game-changer for students.  Here’s why FLT Academy’s Examining Authority makes your training faster and more efficient:

• No More Waiting Months for Checkrides: In most flight schools, after you finish a training stage (say, Private Pilot or Instrument), you must schedule a practical test (checkride) with an independent FAA Designated Pilot Examiner (DPE).  Due to a nationwide DPE shortage, aspiring pilots often face weeks or even months of delay just waiting for an available exam slot.  These delays can be costly – not only do they stretch out your timeline, but you might need extra practice flights to stay sharp, adding expense.  At FLT Academy, by contrast, you won’t be stuck in that line.  Thanks to our Examining Authority, your final End of Course (EOC) flight test can be conducted by our own senior staff Chief/Assistant Chief Flight Instructor upon finishing the course.  In most cases, FLT students wait only a few days (not months) to take their checkride.  You earn your pilot certificate far quicker and keep progressing without interruption.
• Stay on Timeline and on Budget: FLT Academy’s ability to examine and certify its students directly means you stay on your training timeline and avoid the “logjam” that plagues many others.  Fewer delays translate to finishing your ratings faster and with less stress.  It also helps you control costs – you’re not burning money on extra rental or instructor time while awaiting a DPE.  We pride ourselves on maintaining a high-quality, structured training environment with fewer delays, ensuring you achieve your certifications faster and enter the airline pipeline as planned.  In an industry where timing matters (recall that hiring wave!), FLT’s Examining Authority keeps you on track to seize opportunities.
• Proven Excellence and Trust: The FAA doesn’t grant examining authority lightly – a school must demonstrate years of high-standard training outcomes (including a student pass rate above 90% on exams).  FLT Academy earned this distinction, which speaks to the caliber of our instructors, curriculum, and safety standards.  When you train with us, you’re training at a school that meets and exceeds strict FAA quality criteria, giving you confidence in the instruction you receive.  And when it comes time for your checkride, being assessed by our own chief instructor – someone who knows your training – can make the experience more personal and less intimidating than meeting a stranger for a one-shot test.  The result is often a more comfortable exam experience, and our pass rates attest to that.

Choosing FLT Academy means choosing a school that is deeply invested in your success.  Beyond our examining authority, we offer modern training aircraft and simulators, an FAA-approved curriculum, and airline partnerships (including a direct pathway with a major regional airline) to help launch your career.  But the Examining Authority is our crown jewel – it’s an exclusive advantage that will save you time, reduce uncertainty, and get you into that airline cockpit on schedule.  No other flight school in the region can currently match this benefit.  As we like to say: “Stop waiting for checkrides.” At FLT Academy, you won’t have to.  You’ll progress through training without unnecessary holdups, earn your licenses promptly, and be airline-ready by the time the jobs are plentiful.

Conclusion: Position Yourself for Success

The aviation industry is gearing up for an unprecedented hiring boom in the next few years.  Thousands of airline pilots will be retiring, fleets will be growing, and airlines will be eager to hire the next generation of aviators to keep the world flying.  This cyclical upturn is on the horizon in 2028, and the time to prepare is right now.  By starting your flight training today – and by choosing a top-notch academy like FLT that will accelerate your progress – you can ensure you’re fully qualified and ready to grab your wings when the majors come calling.  The current lull in hiring is truly the perfect opportunity to train diligently, build experience, and get yourself in pole position for the coming pilot gold rush.

In summary, the sky ahead looks bright for those who plan and act.  The next hiring wave is coming, and it could very well be your career taking off at the peak of it.  Don’t miss the runway: begin your journey now with FLT Academy, and you could be soaring with the airlines by the time the boom arrives.  Your future in the cockpit awaits!