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The aviation industry is on the cusp of significant change: a surging demand for pilots in traditional airlines coincides with the emergence of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) air taxis. Major U.S. airlines are in the midst of a hiring boom to address a persistent pilot shortage driven by mass retirements and rising travel demand . At the same time, dozens of companies plan to launch eVTOL passenger services in the coming years, creating an entirely new sector that will require its own corps of qualified pilots. This report analyzes pilot demand over the next 20 years in both conventional aviation and the nascent eVTOL industry, examining how eVTOL growth will affect the pilot shortage and what opportunities will arise across the industry. Key topics include projected pilot hiring needs, training pathways for eVTOL operators, the timeline for autonomous flight, and new careers in maintenance, operations, and regulation stemming from advanced air mobility.
Commercial airlines face a well-documented pilot shortage that is expected to continue for years. In the United States, retirements are outpacing new entrants – by one estimate, 80,000 airline pilots will retire in the next 20 years, forcing carriers to accelerate hiring just to replace those departures . Industry forecasts anticipate steady growth in air travel demand, which compounds the need for new pilots. Boeing’s latest 20-year outlook (2024–2043) projects that North America alone will need about 127,000 new pilots by 2042 to support fleet growth and account for attrition . This breaks down to thousands of new pilots every year; the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics similarly estimates roughly 16,000–17,000 pilot job openings per year in the near term.
This demand has created intense competition for qualified pilots. Airlines have responded with hefty pay raises and bonuses to attract talent, especially at regional carriers. Even so, analyses by consulting firm Oliver Wyman warn the shortfall will persist through most of the decade. Their models show North America’s pilot supply lagging demand by about 17,000 pilots in 2023–2024, with the gap peaking at around 24,000 in 2026 before slightly improving toward 2030 . In other words, absent major intervention, airlines could be tens of thousands of pilots short within a few years. While training enrollments are now rising (thanks to higher pay and renewed interest in aviation careers), it takes time to build experience. The consensus is that the traditional aviation sector will remain under hiring pressure well into the 2030s.
Concurrently, the eVTOL air taxi industry is preparing to launch, introducing a brand-new source of pilot demand. Beginning as early as 2024–2025, companies like Joby Aviation, Archer, and others intend to start limited commercial eVTOL services on short urban and regional routes . These electric aircraft take off and land vertically like helicopters but are quieter and designed for quick hops across cities or to airports. Initial passenger flights will commence with pilots on board, essentially as small air taxi operations. Industry analysts expect modest scale in the late 2020s followed by rapid expansion in the 2030s once aircraft are certified and vertiport networks grow . A recent analysis by Bain forecasts that by 2035, around 12,000 eVTOL aircraft could be in service globally, and up to 45,000 by 2040, as urban air mobility networks proliferate . Even if only a fraction of that fleet materializes in the U.S., it represents thousands of new aircraft that each require a trained pilot (at least in the early years of operation).
Example of an eVTOL aircraft (Joby Aviation S4 prototype). These piloted electric air taxis will begin commercial operations in the mid-2020s, with fleets potentially scaling to thousands of vehicles over the next two decades.
Several projections have attempted to quantify how many eVTOL pilots will be needed. KPMG estimates that in the “early phase of growth” (by 2030) over 19,000 pilots globally may be required to meet advanced air mobility demand . This suggests on the order of many thousands of eVTOL pilots would be flying by 2030 worldwide, with the U.S. likely a leading market. Some industry forecasts are even more bullish – for example, one study projects the eVTOL sector could require up to 60,000 pilots by 2028 (a figure reflecting very optimistic deployment rates) . While such high-end estimates may prove too aggressive, there is general agreement that tens of thousands of new pilots will be needed as eVTOL services scale through the 2030s. For context, Aviation Week’s fleet forecast (which is relatively conservative) envisions about 1,000 eVTOL aircraft in service by 2030 and roughly 10,000 by 2040 . If each aircraft operates many short flights per day, operators will require multiple pilots per vehicle to cover shifts, so pilot demand could grow even faster than the aircraft count. In sum, the eVTOL air taxi rollout will create a substantial new segment of pilot employment on top of the existing airline market.
A critical question is where eVTOL pilots will come from and how they will be trained. Regulators have made it clear that the first generation of eVTOL pilots must hold traditional pilot licenses and experience before transitioning to these novel aircraft. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) are aligning rules so that early eVTOL pilots will be licensed commercial pilots – either with an airplane commercial certificate or a helicopter commercial certificate – plus a specific type rating for the eVTOL . In practice, this means initial hires will not be ab initio trainees with zero experience; they will be drawn from the ranks of existing aviators. The FAA expects eVTOL pilots to meet the same hour requirements and training rigor as current commercial operations, ruling out candidates with no prior flight time . In short, seasoned pilots will be at the controls initially, and they will undergo additional conversion training to handle the unique characteristics of eVTOL aircraft.
Indeed, eVTOL companies are actively recruiting experienced pilots for their launch operations. “The ranks of experienced airline and helicopter pilots seem the most likely source, at least initially,” notes FlightGlobal in an analysis of eVTOL training needs . Joby Aviation, for example, estimates it will need an initial cadre of 200–300 pilots for its first air taxi services and is targeting seasoned commercial and military pilots to fill those seats . Similarly, Volocopter’s training chief forecasts that “the majority of UAM (urban air mobility) pilots will come from the airliner segment, with some helicopter pilots adding to the mix” as well . These experienced aviators bring strong safety backgrounds and instrument flying skills, which will be valuable as eVTOL operations begin in complex urban airspaces. Early eVTOL missions are expected to be flown under visual flight rules at low altitude and in congested areas (e.g. rooftop vertiports in city centers), a profile that has elements of helicopter flying combined with airline-style procedures . Pilots with high professionalism and training are therefore sought to navigate these challenges. Operators are likely to start with “top gun” pilots from their own ranks or from the military and commercial aviation, knowing the first eVTOL flights will be under intense public and regulatory scrutiny .
Over time, the pathway to becoming an eVTOL pilot may broaden. As the industry matures, dedicated training pipelines for eVTOL could develop to bring in new talent directly. Notably, Joby Aviation has announced plans for a Joby Academy to train pilots from scratch (“ab initio”) specifically for its air taxis . The idea is to reduce barriers to entry – “One of the reasons there’s a pilot shortage is it costs too much money. If we can reduce the entry costs, then it gets down to where college grants and loans are available,” says Bonny Simi, head of Air Operations at Joby . Such programs would allow someone with no flight experience to earn the required ratings and then transition into an eVTOL cockpit, potentially with a focus on the skills unique to urban air mobility. Early indications are that eVTOL aircraft are designed to be easier to fly than conventional helicopters – often featuring fly-by-wire controls, extensive automation, and simplified control interfaces (e.g. just two control sticks and a couple of screens in the cockpit) . Joby asserts that “someone who is not a pilot could learn how to take off and land [our] aircraft in 10 minutes” due to its intuitive controls . While that claim speaks to aircraft simplicity, real-world eVTOL operations will still demand intensive training in airspace integration, high-frequency takeoff/landing cycles, battery management, and emergency procedures unique to flying in dense urban environments . As eVTOL fleets grow, we can expect specialized eVTOL training curricula (leveraging simulators and mixed-reality devices) to scale up, producing pilots who may bypass the airline route altogether to fly air taxis. In summary, the near-term eVTOL pilot pool will be drawn from seasoned fixed-wing and rotorcraft pilots via transition courses, but in the longer term the industry is poised to train new pilots “from day one” on these aircraft as a distinct career path.
The introduction of eVTOL air taxis raises the question: Will this alleviate or worsen the overall pilot shortage? In the short term, adding a new market for pilots is likely to exacerbate the talent crunch. Airlines and eVTOL operators will be recruiting from the same limited pool of qualified pilots, effectively competing with each other. From one perspective, the timing is challenging – “By 2030, an additional quarter of a million fixed-wing pilots will be required for civilian operations… the emergence of a new aviation sector that necessitates qualified pilots might seem like unfortunate timing,” notes one aviation publication . Every pilot that an eVTOL company hires is one less pilot potentially available to the airlines (or the helicopter industry), at least initially. If eVTOL firms offer attractive opportunities (for instance, the chance to live in major cities with home-nightly operations, or the appeal of working in a high-tech sector), they could draw some pilots who would otherwise go to airlines. This could intensify recruitment challenges for regional airlines in particular, which already struggle to retain pilots who often leave for better-paying jobs. In essence, through the late 2020s, eVTOL growth may aggravate the shortage by creating new demand faster than the training pipeline can expand.
However, in the medium to long term, the rise of eVTOL could also help mitigate the pilot shortage by injecting new energy and pathways into the profession. The prospect of futuristic electric air taxis may generate excitement among young people and those who hadn’t considered aviation before. Some industry observers suggest urban air mobility could “inspire a generation of youngsters to take to the skies”, providing a much-needed influx of fresh trainees . More accessible training programs (like the ab initio academies mentioned) and the high-tech allure of eVTOLs might broaden the pilot talent pool beyond the traditional sources. Additionally, eVTOL operations might offer an alternate career entry point. In the U.S., a newly minted commercial pilot typically must log 1,500 hours before being eligible to fly as an airline first officer, which often means working as a flight instructor or in small charter operations. In the future, a portion of those new pilots might join eVTOL air taxi services to build experience in a structured commercial environment . For example, a pilot with a commercial license but not enough hours for the airlines could fly eVTOL missions (likely under Part 135 operations) for a few years, accruing hours while earning a salary – a potentially more appealing route than traditional time-building jobs. If structured properly, this could ease pressure on flight schools and create a pipeline of pilots who later transition to airlines or remain in the AAM (Advanced Air Mobility) sector.
Looking further ahead, the eventual automation of eVTOLs will also influence pilot demand (discussed in the next section). Once eVTOL aircraft begin operating without human pilots on board, the explosive need for new eVTOL pilots will level off. But until that point – which is at least a decade away – the industry will need to train large numbers of pilots while also not starving the airlines of talent. Overall, we can expect a two-phase effect: initially, eVTOL introduction intensifies the hiring challenge (more jobs chasing a limited supply of qualified pilots), but over time it could stimulate growth in the pilot workforce and provide new training pathways, partially offsetting the shortage. In any case, close collaboration between traditional aviation and the eVTOL sector (for example, partnerships where major airlines invest in eVTOL ventures and potentially share pilot development programs) may be key to ensuring one sector’s growth doesn’t become another sector’s crisis.
The transition to autonomous flight is a pivotal factor in future pilot demand. eVTOL aircraft are being developed with the long-term goal of flying with minimal or no onboard pilot, but the timeline for achieving full autonomy at scale is uncertain. A few companies are taking a “pilotless from the start” approach – most notably Wisk Aero (backed by Boeing), which is developing a 4-seat eVTOL that has no cockpit for a pilot at all. Wisk aims to certify this fully autonomous air taxi and begin carrying passengers “later in the decade,” according to its CEO . In practice, that suggests an optimistic target of around 2028–2030 for initial autonomous flights with passengers, pending regulatory approval. If Wisk or others succeed in this timeframe, some eVTOL services could avoid adding to pilot demand by using self-flying aircraft supervised by remote operators.
Most eVTOL developers, however, are starting with piloted models and plan to phase in automation gradually. The general industry consensus is that widespread autonomous eVTOL operations are at least 10–15 years away. Analysts caution that regulators and the public will require a proven safety record before accepting pilotless passenger flights at scale. A recent Bain & Company report projects that “a full autonomous passenger flight is not expected before the late 2030s,” given the technological and certification hurdles remaining . This implies that through the 2020s and most of the 2030s, human pilots will remain integral to advanced air mobility. Early autonomy may appear in limited forms – for instance, some eVTOLs might operate in a supervised autonomy mode (with a human pilot on board mainly as backup) or be flown remotely by a pilot from a control center, similar to how military drones operate. But truly removing the pilot from the aircraft in commercial service will be a slow, stepwise process.
Regulatory blueprints are starting to account for this evolution. The FAA’s UAM Concept of Operations for 2030 assumes initial eVTOL flights will be under positive air traffic control, with pilots aboard and technologies like ADS-B out for tracking . Future phases might introduce higher levels of automation (such as one operator overseeing multiple air taxis or increasing use of detect-and-avoid systems), but rulemaking for autonomous passenger flight will likely extend into the 2030s. In Europe, EASA is similarly focused first on piloted air taxis, with autonomous operations to be enabled only after experience is gained. On the technology front, companies like Wisk and EHang (in China) will continue unmanned test flights and small-scale trials. Their progress could accelerate the timeline if they demonstrate extreme reliability. Still, experts note that the “barrier is higher when the aircraft is autonomous” in terms of proving safety to regulators .
Taking all this into account, we can forecast that eVTOL pilot demand will remain robust through at least the mid-2030s, since significant portions of the fleet will require onboard pilots until autonomy is fully realized. Perhaps in the late 2030s or 2040s, if pilotless eVTOLs become common, the sector’s need for human pilots will plateau and then decrease. By that stage, eVTOL operators may shift pilot roles into remote supervisors or fleet managers who monitor autonomous flights. In the interim, however, any near-term relief to the pilot shortage from autonomy is unlikely – for the next 10–15 years, every new eVTOL put into service will most likely have a pilot seat that needs filling.
The advent of eVTOL and advanced air mobility will not only demand pilots, but also spawn a variety of careers across maintenance, operations, infrastructure, and regulation. In fact, the growth of this sector is often cited as an opportunity to modernize and expand the aviation workforce in many supporting roles:
Over the next 20 years, the United States will experience unprecedented demand for pilots, stemming from both the traditional aviation sector and the emergence of eVTOL air taxis. The commercial airline industry must replace a wave of retiring pilots and hire aggressively to support fleet growth, driving demand for tens of thousands of new pilots in the coming decades . Layered on top of this, the advanced air mobility sector is creating a parallel need for trained pilots to fly cutting-edge eVTOL aircraft, which could number in the thousands by the 2030s . Initially, eVTOL operators will rely on experienced pilots transitioning from fixed-wing and helicopter backgrounds, intensifying competition for an already limited talent pool . In the longer term, however, the growth of eVTOL aviation may broaden the pipeline of new pilots through specialized training programs and the allure of participating in a high-tech aviation frontier . By the time autonomous flight technology matures in the late 2030s or beyond, eVTOL services will gradually reduce their reliance on human pilots . But between now and then, human capital will be the linchpin of advanced air mobility’s success. The industry’s ability to meet pilot demand – and concurrently train maintenance technicians, vertiport operators, and other support professionals – will determine how smoothly eVTOL operations can scale up without detracting from the broader aviation workforce.
In summary, the introduction of eVTOL air taxis is both a challenge and an opportunity for the aviation labor market. It risks exacerbating the pilot shortage in the near term, yet it also injects new energy that could attract people to aviation careers who might not have joined otherwise. Proactive measures, such as joint airline-eVTOL training initiatives, scholarship programs, and investments in automation, will be crucial to balance these effects. If executed well, the growth of eVTOL could herald a new era of aviation jobs and reinvigorate interest in aerospace – not just for pilots, but across the board. The coming decades will be a dynamic period of adaptation as the U.S. aviation industry works to satisfy booming demand for air travel and aerial mobility. By planning now for training needs and embracing the innovation of eVTOL technology, stakeholders can ensure that the skyward expansion – from commercial jetliners to urban air taxis – is safely and efficiently staffed for the future.
Sources: Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook; Oliver Wyman analysis; Pelican Flight School report; FlightGlobal; Avionics International; SP’s Aviation; KPMG Aviation 2030 report; Bain & Co. analysis; Reuters; NBAA AAM maintenance report.